We are often asked this question by our clients here at AAG.
In reading a recent article in the Financial Review, the Commonwealth Bank brought forward its tip for the first rise in the record-low 0.1 per cent cash rate from August to June this year and told clients it expected a cash rate of 1 per cent by the end of 2022.
The research note admits picking the “exact timing” of rate hikes is “false precision”, but the bank had laid out an approximate forecast for when rates will rise and by how much.
Currently, CBA expects the RBA to lift rates by 15 basis points in June, taking the official cash rate to 0.25 per cent.
It will then lift rates by 25 basis points twice in the third quarter of 2022, and once more in the fourth quarter, taking the cash rate to a flat 1.0 per cent by the end of this year.
Finally, in the first quarter of 2023, the bank predicts one more rise to take the cash rate to 1.25 per cent.
The RBA board wants to ensure that inflation is sustainably within its 2 to 3 per cent target band before lifting rates. In appearances following the February board meeting, RBA governor Philip Lowe said rate rises in 2022 were “plausible”.
Interest rate increases will generate changes in behaviour, which will impact economic outcomes. For context, we estimate over one million home borrowers have never experienced a rise in mortgage rates!
Should I fix all or part of my home loan?
This is the second most common question we are receiving from our clients lately.
Many clients have recently read or heard updates in the media about potential rate rises and are starting to become concerned.
We have a Fact Sheet on Fixed or Variable interest rates with much helpful information to help our clients decide.
While fixed rates have been creeping up for months, variable rates are still being slashed but mainly for new customers — unless you know what to ask for.
We are doing a lot of product and rate reviews for our clients at the moment, potentially saving them thousands over the life of their loans.
If you would like us to help review your existing loan products to see how they compare to the rest of the market, please contact us today.
The AAG way is to help our clients save money or make money.